With minutes to go before the release of Amazon's last quarter earnings, the question is, Will the biggest store on earth continue its rise and rise, or will a bad day on Wall St short circuit the company's progress? For the record, I believe my (AMZN) stocks, all 50 of them, will rise back to $75 - by next week! And please, take no notice of my prediction.

(AMZN) up the creek without a paddle?

When Jeff Bezos produced his first ever earnings report, the Earth must have seemed a big place with annual earnings lower than a slow week at B&N. While Barnes and Noble were polishing the mortar between their bricks, laughing their smug heads off at Amazon, I can remember someone else beaming at Amazon.

My father, a bookworm, was getting all excited when he ordered his first on-line book. Even he could see that Amazon's retailing strategy was the future and how cool that any old person could get their shopping delivered to their door within 24 hours. Hundreds of millions of people in 2007 have the same opinion now as Jeff Bezos (and my father!) had back in the old days of red ink and hemorrhaged accounts.

AMZN tech stock

The golden rule of owning a stock is "Understand your company." Bottom line, it took me a lot of reading before I grasped the popular concept that Amazon were not a tech stock. Just like any retail outlet in a mall, Amazon sell things - the only difference being, they live on the internet and don't make you wait in line while underpaid workers swap boyfriend/ girlfriend stories.

However, what most people didn't quite understand back in the day, was that Amazon were a latent tech stock too.

Amazon Web Services

You don't build a store like Amazon using Quicken books and Microsoft Access database. The brains behind AMZN were techno heads of the highest order, and until 2002, their awesome knowledge and innovation was kept close to their chest and prioritised for in-house development. A softly softly tactic cost Amazon lots of money, which perpetuated the myth that Amazon would never be profitable.

Some people wondered what catapaulted the company stocks up 60% in the last few months. The popular reason is the free shipping for Prime members. I don't know that is the full story.

Do you remember the image of Mr Invincible trying to get through that tube? Same here with Amazon. There was so much momentum from technology and innovation, and the bottom line is that the 5-year investment in projects like S3 online storage services, and other trojan technical horses has exploded Amazon into a bearer of high prices for shareholders.

TicTap and Amazon and co

For a couple of years I have been receiving emails from the hallowed Amazon S3 developers inviting me to potter around their on-line storage ideas and try out alpha shopping carts. I was happy to oblige. It is fun trying to break whacky things. As I played, 300,000 very clever techies were tapping deep into Amazon's database, looking under leaves, and writing truly extraordinary programs geared to making more sense of Amazon's rambling global store.

This is what was going on 2005 when AMZN were wallowing.


I love it when people think ahead!

Impact of S3 etc

I use TicTap as a simple way to pick books from niche topics, so imagine the benefits to Amazon if hundreds of thousands of people install that program across the internet. Then multiply out the number of TicTap type applications that do an equal or even better job, and install them on mega sites frequented by millions of people with itchy wallet fingers. Hold back on investment in technology, and the gap between income and outgoings widens, and Jeff Bezos and my father smile again with a hint of "I told you so"

AMZN up 11.6%

Sorry folks, my Wall Street stock price prediction ability is dodgy to put it mildly. I said before I knew the results that (AMZN) would hit $75 by next week. Wrong! The stock was faster out the gate than any UPS delivery driver on his last drop of the day.